Advancing Model Reliability Through a Generalised Uncertainty Methodology: A Response to the Second AIAA Uncertainty Quantification Challenge Problem for Aerodynamics

This paper presents a response to the second Uncertainty Quantification Challenge Problem for Aerodynamics organized by the AIAA Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) Discussion Group, which required the estimation of total uncertainty of the predictions of the panel code XFOIL at four distinct flight conditions [1]. The central idea behind the response is that UQ requires attention to detail and a customised treatment for the problem at hand, rather than a blanket strategy of a one-size-fits all toolbox. The response provides a component-wise treatment of different uncertainties routinely found in computational engineering-input uncertainty characterisation and propagation, numerical uncertainty quantification, model validation and predictive capability estimation are all addressed. Cost analysis is also presented. Results show that model form uncertainty is the biggest contributor to the total uncertainty in predictions. Throughout the paper, existing methods, used in responding to the challenge problem are reviewed together with their key strengths and limitations and a discussion for some important areas of improvement is provided.

DOI
10.2514/6.2026-0294
Authors
Hristov, P., & Nikolov, V.
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